EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

The EIA released its January Short-Term Energy Outlook two weeks ago (I usually catch it sooner than this—sorry!)  Highlights:

• The energy forecast is sensitive to economic conditions.  In this forecast, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 2 percent in 2009, leading to decreases in domestic energy consumption for all major fuels.   Economic recovery is projected to begin in 2010, with 2 percent year-over-year growth in GDP.

• In the past 6 months, the monthly average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fallen from $133 per barrel in July to $41 in December. WTI prices are projected to average $43 per barrel in 2009 and $55 in 2010.

• Average monthly U.S. prices for regular gasoline and diesel fuel were $1.69 and $2.45 per gallon, respectively, in December 2008, more than $2.25 per gallon below their monthly peaks last July.  Economic contraction in 2009 and lower projected crude oil prices are expected to reduce annual average retail gasoline and diesel fuel prices in 2009 to $1.87 and $2.27 per gallon, respectively.

• Residential heating oil prices during the current (2008-09) heating season are projected to average $2.48 per gallon, a reduction of 25 percent from the 2007-2008 heating season.  Residential propane prices are projected to average $2.14 this winter, a decrease of 13 percent from last winter.  Residential natural gas prices are projected to average $12.17 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), a decrease of 4 percent from last winter.

• The U.S. economic downturn is also contributing to lower natural gas prices.  The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is projected to decline from an average of $9.13 per Mcf in 2008 to $5.78 per Mcf in 2009, but then increase in 2010 to an average of $6.63 per Mcf.

OPEC announced in December that it would cut supply, but crude oil prices have not risen in response:

However, the market is not presently convinced that OPEC members will willingly curtail output enough to lead to much higher prices.  Adherence to the announced cuts will be challenging, as several individual countries are motivated to maintain production at higher levels to to generate revenue needed to finance their government programs amid falling prices.  The lack of transparency in the new agreement, highlighted by the failure to publicize individual country production cuts, is one indicator of the reluctance of countries to cut production consistent with the group’s new overall production target.  OPEC plans to meet again on March 15 in Vienna to evaluate the effectiveness of its recent actions.

The EIA projects gasoline to average $1.87 per gallon in 2009, and $2.18 per gallon in 2010.

The next Short-Term outlook will be released on February 10.