All Good Things Must Come to an End

I wonder who said that.  Does anyone know?  And do bad things come to an end?  Probably not.

For a number of reasons, the time has come for me to cease blogging.  Most of the reasons are private, and very difficult.  Suffice to say, I can’t do this anymore with everything that’s going on in my life.

Perhaps in the future I will be able to come back, or start a new blog.  In the meantime, the articles will stay up, but I won’t be approving any more comments.  Hope you enjoyed it.

Friday Music Break: Sniff’n’ the Tears, “Driver’s Seat”

Eventual World Series Winners on Opening Day

The Yankees went down in flames to the Orioles yesterday, 10-5, leaving no small number of Yankees fans wondering if the team has any shot of making the post season.

Before you go bananas over your team’s first-game performance, consider this.  Over the last 25 years, skipping 1994, the eventual World Series winners have a cumulative opening day record of 14 wins and 11 loses.

14 wins in 25 games yields a .560 winning percentage, which would translate to 90 victories over 162-game schedule.

The cumulative winning percentage of the last 25 World Series champions is .590 (2379 – 1651), which works out to approximately 96 wins in a 162-game schedule.  So it seems World Series winners tend to slightly underperform on opening day, although there are a huge number of variables at work here.  For example, rosters change throughout the season from trades, injuries, demotions, etc.

Bottom-line: If your team loses on opening day, it probably doesn’t mean anything.  Good teams, by definition, win their games.  Opening day is like any other day, so the tendency is for the good teams to win.  But even great teams lose 40% of their games, so a loss on opening day doesn’t necessarily mean your team sucks.

Some useless facts:

• In the Wild Card era, only one 100-win team has won the World Series, the 1998 New York Yankees (114-48).  They lost on opening day.  In fact, they rolled out the gate losing four of their first five games.
• Five of the last seven World Series winners lost on opening day.  The exceptions are the 2005 Chicago White Sox and 2006 St. Louis Cardinals.
• Since 1983, there have been only three World Series winners with fewer than 90 regular season wins: the 1987 Minnesota Twins (85-77), 2000 New York Yankees (87-74), and the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals (83-79).  All three won on opening day.
• Since 1983, the longest opening day winning streak among World Series winners was only four games, from 1984 through 1987 (Tigers, Royals, Mets, Twins).  The longest losing streak was three games, from 2002 through 2004 (Angels, Marlins, Red Sox).
• The last two World Series winners (Red Sox, Phillies) both lost on opening day.

(Just to clarify: we’re looking at opening day performance the year the team wins the World Series, not performance on opening day of the year following their win.  Opening day simply means the team’s first game of the season.)

Cycling: Watching the Clock

If you’re like me, it’s a struggle to find the hours needed to train for races or centuries, or to ride just for fitness.   Of course, a critical piece of information is how long the Sun will be providing enough light for safe cycling.  I found this out a few years ago when I commuted back and forth to work with Doug Welle in Birmingham, AL.  We both had 8:00 AM classes, and in December and January we needed to ride out at the earliest possible moment.  That moment is the start of civil twilight.

Basically, civil twilight is the period of time before sunrise and after sunset when there is enough ambient light reflecting off the Earth’s upper atmosphere that most outdoor activities can be performed without artificial lighting.  (Here is the technical definition.) From morning civil twilight to evening civil twilight is the span of time I feel comfortable riding a bike without artificial lighting, which is a pain in the arse to put on the bike.

(Don’t follow my example.  I’m lazy.  Put some lights on your bike and be extra careful before sunrise and after sunset.)

To find the civil twilight times for your locality, go here: http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php, then enter the data for your location:

You’ll get this:

So in Farmville, VA today, civil twilight ends at 8:07 PM.  I need to get in a 90-minute active recovery ride, so I know I can start as late as 6:30 PM and still have 97 minutes to make it home.  If I can get started at 5:00 PM, I have more than enough time even if I get a flat tire or have some other problem.

A Good Piece of Advice for Time Trialing

If you have a wireless computer: Before you go to the starting tent, make sure the magnet on the wheel doesn’t smack the pickup unit. If it turns out it is hitting the pickup after you head out, screw it. You can get another one after the race. If you happen to make it back to the finish without losing the pickup despite the magnet hitting it 95 times per minute for 30+ minutes, consider attaching the pickup to the chainstay upside down or backward–so that if the magnet hits it, it pushes it away from the spokes. It may be a problem to get the sensor close enough to the wheel and crank magnet simultaneously. (I have a CatEye V2c with speed and cadence sensors integrated into the same unit, and I’m still working on positioning it upside down so that both magnets are close enough to work.)

I found this out at the Virginia Farm Bureau’s Conquer the Canal TT in Portsmouth, VA on Sunday–20 km on a flat, closed course with virtually no wind.  Other than worrying about my stupid pickup unit (~$80 replacement from CatEye!), I had a great day.  I didn’t finish very well in the Cat 5 standings (28th out of 38th), but I felt I improved over my performance at the Dismal Dash.  My average speed was 22.0 mph.  Not great, but I’m getting better and that’s what counts.

After the race Jordan and I rode the course for another time trial coming up later in the year.  Jordan drug me around a winding 22 mile course in about one hour, and along with the race itself it made for an awesome day of cycling.

Jordan did very well for his part, finishing sixth in the Masters 30+ race, and coming up with the idea to hang the pickup unit upside down.  Then he forgot to collect the gas money.  But I think I left a water bottle in his truck, and I’m sure it’s worth at least $30.

My plans for improving:

• I’m going to try riding in a larger gear and dropping my cadence from the mid-90s to the mid-80s.  It’s possible I can generate more power at a lower cadence.  It may take a few weeks of careful monitoring to see if this really works.
• I’m going to widen the spacing on my aerobars to open up my chest and possibly improve my breathing.  I won’t go wide enough to expose my elbows to the wind, but with some additional space I might be able to pull a bit more oxygen into my blood.

Friday Music Break: Pat Wilson, “Bop Girl”

Religious Intolerance in Oklahoma

Wade Burleson, author of the popular blog Grace and Truth to You, recently offered the following statements in a message to the Oklahoma Senate:

Only those with a belief in the Creator God, the moral ruler of this universe, from whom all life springs and all life will return have the proper moral foundation and ability to lead citizens of this great state and our United States of America. Others, those with secular or atheistic belief systems are free to seek election, but it is incumbent upon freedom loving people to elect those of you who live by the principles which spring forth from a fountain of faith in God. Let the secular humanists lead the socialists, let the atheists lead the totalitarian governmental regimes, but may only believers in God lead our democracy.

These absurd statements are at the very root of one means by religious intolerance. There’s nothing wrong with Burleson developing his own creed to guide his voting, but his dual assertions that unbelievers are incapable of leadership in a democratic state and that it’s obligatory for freedom-loving people to vote only for believers are ridiculous.  And Burleson’s effort to link unbelief with socialism and totalitarianism not only insults atheists and agnostics but also the intelligence of everyone else.  Large is the number of repressive governments (and churches) run by religious ideologues.

But even if we somehow accept Burleson’s premises, it’s impossible to apply his standard.  Anyone can say their principles spring forth from the fountain of faith in God (whatever that is supposed to mean, if anything specific).   In fact, in the current American religious climate, it’s difficult to imagine any politician for major office identifying himself as an atheist or agnostic.  There is no way for people in the voting booth to confirm if a politican’s statement of faith has any truth to it, or what the speaker means by it.

But if we just pretend that politicians are sincere about their professions of faith and pretend that we understand exactly what the politician means, we’re left with the risk of the very problem Burleson is fighting against in the Southern Baptist Convention, what he calls “narrowing of parameters.”  If we travel down Burleson’s road, which I suppose involves an amendment to Article VI of the Constitution, we will probably have to deal with such questions as (1) What kind of faith in God is best?  (2) Is the candidate’s faith backed up by the right kind of Baptism?  (3)  Is the candidate’s faith drawn from the correct version of the Bible?  (4) Is the candidate’s faith based on the correct doctrinal confessions? (5) Is the candidate’s faith in any way compromised by atheistic science?

I’m reminded of an individual who asked a question to the candidates for the Republican nomination for President this summer.  The young man held up a King James Bible and asked something like this: “Can you tell me what you think of this book, because that will tell me all I need to know about you.”  How many people believe that’s a reasonable way to determine who gets your vote?

In the voting booth, it’s important to be selfish.  Vote based on your conscience and your best understanding of who is more likely to protect your interests.  That’s what I do.  If you really believe that a candidate’s religious views are important, and that you can accurately determine what those views are (or that you can believe what the candidate says about them), fine.  I’m not concerned with the religious beliefs of those running for office.  I’m concerned with their policy positions and their ability to do the job I’m electing them to do.  That’s how a democracy functions.

The Five Best Science Fiction Novels

1. Dune, Frank Herbert
2. Stranger in a Strange Land, Robert Heinlen
3. Rendezvous with Rama, Arthur C. Clarke
4. Ender’s Game, Orson Scott Card
5. The Man in the High Castle, Philip K. Dick

Honorable Mention: Dragon’s Egg, Robert Forward; 2001: A Space Oddessy, Arthur C. Clarke; Neuromancer, William Gibson; Solaris, Stanislaw Lem.

Crank Brothers Speed Lever

The skinny: You need to throw away your traditional tire levers and purchase the Crank Brothers Speed Lever.

I don’t normally do any kind of product endorsement on this blog, for two reasons.  First, I get nothing for it.  Second, I still consider myself too much of a novice to give advice on spending money.  But one tool I own is so unique for its utility and ease of use that I can’t help but plug it for all my cycling friends: the Crank Brothers Speed Lever.

A flat tire is one of the most irritating things that happen on a bicycle ride.  The worst part of fixing any flat is getting the tire off the rim to replace or patch the tube.  A traditional tire lever is difficult to work with, and cyclists often measure themselves by the speed with which they can use one to wrench the tire off the rim.  If everyone could change a flat quickly, no one would take pride in being fast at it.  But the fact is many cyclists have a lot of trouble getting the tire on and off the rim.  Part of that is lack of practice.  But another part is that traditional tire levers are stupid.

On the other hand, the Crank Brothers Speed Lever is amazing.  Where a traditional lever leaves me red-faced and cussing, the Speed Lever works like a magical charm.  I can get a tire off and on the rim in a fraction of the time and with a fraction of the effort needed with a traditional lever.

The Speed Lever looks flimsy, but it isn’t.  I’ve subjected mine to considerable force and have had no problems at all.  I’m not sure you can break it during normal use.  It has a lifetime warranty anyway.

The advantage of the Speed Lever over a traditional lever is similar to the advantage provided by aerobars during a time trial.  How many people compete in a time trial without aerobars?  After you’ve used or seen a Speed Lever demonstrated, you can avoid buying one only if you lack basic common sense.

200 km Death March

So Jordan and I pulled off a 200 km ride today, starting around 8:00 AM.  I was good for the first six hours, then my legs cracked.  The last 90 minutes was not pleasant, especially on any kind of hill.  On the bright side, I needed the work, and I got to see several Virginia towns I didn’t know existed.  Coolest part of the day: riding over an old bridge closed to traffic.

By the way, 200 km = 124 miles, for those of you who don’t habla European.